Climate Change – A series of crises or a new era? — Lionesses of Africa

by Lionesses of Africa Operations Department

It has been 30 years since the Rio Climate Summit, when a global system was set up to bring countries together on a regular basis to try to solve the climate crisis. On Nov 6th the COP27 meeting in Egypt starts. Usually we wait with bated breath as to what the ‘great and the good’ pledge on behalf of their countries and how this will reduce the warming of the world to a level at which we as a species can continue to survive on this beautiful planet we call home. Alok Sharma, the President of COP26, summed up the agreement a year ago as one that was “on life support”. He wrote (here) “The 1.5°C limit lives. We brought it back from the brink. But its pulse remains weak.” Bringing back from the brink is a good description as just before the end of COP26  brinkmanship was taken to a new level when China and India both refused to sign the agreed text pledging to ‘phase out’ coal, instead insisting at the last moment that it be changed to ‘phase down’.

At COP26, lest we forget, the (non-binding) pledges came in that would limit global heating rise to around 2.4°C, way above the 1.5°C level required. All was not lost though as the delegates agreed to update their plans year on year (a ‘ratchet mechanism’) so as to move the dial closer to 1.5°C. So how are we looking one week before COP27, given the wake up calls we have had recently in the form of the horrific flooding in Pakistan (which left more than 1,700 dead) and the current flooding in Nigeria. We have often worried (and mentioned in these articles) about the low level of various parts of Lagos and other areas of Africa, but the news coming out of Nigeria from flooding that has affected 27 of the 36 states and of course Lagos, is both tragic and horrific having affected over half a million people.

The UN has just released its latest look at the promises and pledges made by various governments at and since the COP26 meeting (given the ‘ratchet mechanism’) and it does not make for fun reading, indeed at the launch of the report the executive secretary of UN Climate Change Simon Stiell said “To put it bluntly, countries’ climate action plans as they currently stand simply aren’t good enough. Humanity cannot accept that.”

Why this negativity? Well to start with, only 24 countries bothered to follow their promise to upgrade their pledges this year. Perhaps the Maldives (average height of islands above the sea is sadly too small to mention without bringing tears to our eyes), Environment Minister Shauna Aminath is right when she compared the slowness of global leaders to react to the climate crisis to the incredible speed at which they reacted to the Covid 19 pandemic and more recently Putin’s War, when she says here that: “It’s very obvious that it’s not a lack of money, or a lack of technology, that is the problem. The issue is the lack of political will and the refusal to see the climate crisis as an emergency.”

Ah yes, the war. As Bloomberg report here: “The UK wrapped up its ­hosting duties at COP26 with a claim to have kept alive the Paris Agreement’s goal of capping warming at 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Those gains have now been at best stalled or at worst reversed by the wartime logic brought on by the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has turned Europe’s energy spigot into an economic weapon in response to sanctions, and major developed economies faced with suddenly scarce natural gas supplies are racing to open up old coal-fired power stations.”

So what has the UN found? Their Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has 40 indicators that they believe to be essential or are indicators of progress towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C and they have found that none are on track to reach their 2030 target. Yes Zero; Zip; Zilch; Nada; Nil; Nought! “Six are heading in the right direction at a promising but insufficient speed, while 21 are also trending in the right direction but well below the required pace. Five indicators are trending in the wrong direction entirely, while the data are insufficient to evaluate the final eight indicators.” (here)

The report highlights seven areas the globe must change to get back on track, including limiting beef consumption to only two burgers a week (tick!), but the first they mention is: “Phase out coal power generation six times faster — equivalent to retiring 925 average-sized coal plants per year.” Did we mention there is a war on? A war that is concentrating the minds of the west on the cost of heating for the winter that is bearing down upon the northern hemisphere (home to almost all the richer nations of the world), the closing of supplies of gas from Russia, the use and reopening of coal burning power stations (see here) to counter this and so on.

The chances of COP27 turning that tide is sadly slim, especially as COP has become a homeland for the Fossil Fuel lobby – “…at least 503 fossil fuel lobbyists were admitted to the climate talks [COP26], opening the door for them to continue delaying, distracting and deflecting from the action we need to address the climate crisis, largely caused by their industry…[these] lobbyists as a block outnumber the biggest country delegation and outnumber the combined total of the eight delegations from the countries worst affected by climate change over the last two decades.” See what we mean? (here)

Looks like we have two Hopes for this COP in Egypt to be a success (Bob Hope and No Hope – sorry, showing our age – old joke). So what does that mean for us? Sadly there will be no choice but assume that Global Warming will continue, that extreme weather will become the norm, and will impact (as usual) the least developed and developing nations more than the developed. Yet another area where non-binding pledges have let us down. According to the OECD (here): “…in 2009, developed countries committed to a collective goal of mobilising USD 100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries…[yet this only reached] USD 83.3 billion in 2020” (by far the largest year). As the UN’s humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths has said (here): “…he did not know where the promised $100bn…a year to fight the impact of global heating in poorer countries had gone “…we are scrambling to try to understand where the climate money is that was promised a decade ago. Where is it? Who’s holding it and who is not delivering it…””

When the Senegalese President, Macky Sall, convened an Africa Climate Adaptation Summit in Rotterdam recently, as Bloomberg reported (here), he invited all western nations to come and work with the African nations (perfect opportunity for that elusive US$100bn per year to make an appearance one would have thought), yet only the African leaders showed up. In fairness, France sent their Development Minister, the EU their Climate Minister, and Mark Rutte the PM of the host country.“

What can we as Lionesses do in the face of all this inaction? First, see just how at risk your country and town is by checking this great map from Climate Central, an ‘independent group of scientists’ here. Note that this shows how likely the temperature that day is more or less due to Climate Change – so a ‘0’ denotes no climate effect, but a ‘5’ shows that it is highly likely that that particular temperature is climate change driven – why is this important? Because of the difference between the ‘weather’ and ‘climate’, see NASA’s definition here. As you will see from the map, coastal parts of Nigeria and Ghana, and also swathes of East Africa are currently having days that are Climate Change influenced – you have to expect far more of these in the years ahead – so plan.

This planning must also include for life without Government infrastructure – consider ‘what is the worst that could happen?’. Sovereign debt burdens as we have mentioned before have become unsustainable in many countries, to say nothing of years of mismanagement, corruption and fraud in ministries and utilities (yes sadly that was a shout out to our long suffering and totally inspirational membership in South Africa!) – although they will never disappear (we hope!), so many are at breaking point.

With all of these sorry tales in mind, if you feel tempted to purchase or take out a long lease on a building close to a river or flood plain, think again if in areas that has recent flooding (and had a ‘5’ on the map at that time). If you need large amounts of water for your factory and the local rivers and reservoirs are drying up (and the map shows this is Climate related), make sure at the very least you have a strong borehole until you can find somewhere better. If you wonder how you can afford solar panels for your factory, start to think how expensive it will be to go hours without power, let alone have to pay your staff while you wait.  This is an investment worth considering. Ensure you have security at your premises. Protect your business and your staff – as the UN say here: “Climate change is a “threat multiplier”, meaning it escalates social, political and economic tensions…”.

We mentioned last weekend how we as Lionesses can assist our female staff members in this iniquitous world (see here), climate change doesn’t just hit poorer countries, it also impacts women far more. “Climate Change is not gender neutral” the UN continues. “As climate change drives conflict across the world, women and girls face increased vulnerabilities to all forms of gender-based violence, including conflict-related sexual violence, human trafficking, child marriage, and other forms of violence.” and “…extreme heat increases incidence of stillbirth, and climate change is increasing the spread of vector-borne illnesses such as malaria, dengue fever, and Zika virus, which are linked to worse maternal and neonatal outcomes.”

And finally do whatever you can to educate your staff in the basic issues such as Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. Not only does every little help, but so much of the flooding in our cities is created by poorly managed drainage, exacerbated by rubbish piling up in the streets. If there is a recycling group nearby, ask how your team can assist, if not, start one!

We have no choice but to be very aware indeed of what is in store for our countries, our towns and communities, to ensure that when we plan and create a strategy for the next ten-twenty years, we recognise that Global Warming will just get worse. Sadly thanks to years of inaction from the Globe’s historical polluters, everything is now pointing to this being an Era of Crises not a series of different and unrelated crises. The sooner we all realise this, the better prepared we shall be for the next few and painful decades.

Now is when true Lioness leadership comes to the fore.

Stay Safe.