Timing is everything!  — Lionesses of Africa

By the Lionesses of Africa Operations Department

We often hear of ‘first mover advantage’ whereby the first one into a new industry, country or product, the ‘Pathfinder’, has a significant advantage that is not easy to beat. But is that true? 

To a certain extent, yes. There is after all a reason we all still talk about “Hoovering our homes” (yet Hoover Inc (formed in 1908) has not been the market leader for years), but to stay at the top (as Hoover did for many decades) is not easy and takes serious effort. 

A Pathfinder often spends a great deal of time and money showing the potential market what it is missing and why this new product will transform lives. Once the consumer has woken up to this fact it becomes all too easy for the Pathfinder to wallow in the well earned profits as they pour in, forgetting sadly that it’s not just the consumer they have woken, but the competition too… 

Research and Development (‘R&D’) spend has to keep well ahead of the competition, in addition to which, profits must fall as a deterrent to anyone thinking there is large ‘fat’ to be shared or taken…especially as it is so easy these days to reverse engineer products and then build back with a different logo… Patents are often only worth as much as you are willing to throw at a lawyer – just look at how Japan, China and now to a certain extent, India have perfected this ‘copy and improve’ model over the years.

One of the world’s great Pathfinder companies, Motorola, pushed for ages for mobile phones to become something for everyone. Initial concerns were based around size (close to a medium sized handbag in the 1980’s!) and also as so many asked at the time – “Seriously, who really needs to be in constant contact with the office or for that matter, home!” 

Fast forward to 2021 and there are now more cell phones in existence than people on this earth and we simply cannot survive without our 24/7 attachment to office and home! 

Motorola were serious Pathfinders and during the 1980’s enjoyed success with the business community, who were the only ones who could afford the $4,000 price tag (and the briefcase large enough to carry one of these), but then in the early 1990’s technology took over, phones became smaller and competition exploded. GSM, Nokia, Samsung, Ericsson, Siemens, Sony and Blackberry all got in on the act. Then download speeds increased rapidly with 3G and that’s when Steve Jobs joined in the fun!

All this time Motorola were fighting a costly rear guard action, trying to keep their position in the market, until in 2007 they woke up to find it was all over. In the 4th quarter of 2007 they recorded a loss of US$1.2 billion!  

2007? That was the year that Apple released the original iPhone – overnight it was game over and in July 2008, as a final knife blow, a huge number of Motorola executives left to join Apple.

If you have a moment it is well worth watching the great man himself bringing in the quantum leap that was then and still is the iPhone, here. He opens by saying: “This is a day I have been looking forward to for two and a half years…”. The market had been primed, the consumers were all there, trained and ready and all Steve Jobs had to do was turn on the magic…

This future, this belief in ‘what tomorrow could bring’ had been clearly shown by Motorola, and yes, it took ages (and a great deal of money) for the consumer to recognize what was there for them, but once it was recognised the competition took full advantage. Where Motorola saw loyal customers happy to stay in love with them because they were the Pathfinder, their competition saw an opportunity to tear this love apart. Where Motorola assumed this love for their Brand (that was so forward thinking in seeing the future), would last and last, the competition was already planning and providing the future’s future and tormenting Motorola day by day. With the cash bleeding fast, the end was plain for all to see. Even the most die-hard fans madly in love with Motorola finally gave up, recognising the truth. 

As with love, so with business and even more so for Pathfinders, this is a two way street with the one you are in a relationship with. 

It can never be taken for granted.

What was most interesting was that until Apple and Steve Jobs had the mobile network that could handle their dreams and their own advanced technology, they stayed out of the mobile phone market. Once the technology (which arrived with 3G) had caught up with their dreams, they pounced. Their competition had spent the previous 10-15 years battling it out whilst moving the technology forward inch by inch in a costly war, and so by the time Apple jumped in, the competition was not only exhausted but most importantly the market was ready, they had become accustomed to carrying a mobile device, the technology had reduced the size and everyone had become used to being in touch with the office and home. 

This was carefully mapped out timing, not luck. 

Just as with that famous story of Churchill being discovered by his Valet practicing in front of the mirror the evening before a large parliamentary debate and saying out loud to the mirror: “I was not expecting to speak today, only to listen, but I feel compelled by the arguments I have heard thus far to say that I simply cannot agree and so will…”, so it was with Steve Jobs. Nothing was left to chance. 

This is Timing, this is not ‘Luck’. 

The computer market opened, he made it cool with the Mac. 

Sony created the Walkman, he improved and blew the competition away with the iPod. 

Motorola brought the mobile phone to the masses and the rest is history…

When asked about success in business (here), Sir Richard Branson answered: “People often equate success with luck, but it usually comes down to impeccable [and carefully mapped out] timing. Staying ahead of the curve; predicting market conditions; spotting opportunities before they arise; and forecasting the wider economic, social and technological landscape cannot be underestimated when starting a business.”

Well that sounds easy!

Luckily he translates this into something that us mere mortals can understand: “…the most important thing to remember is that the best time to go into a new business is when it’s being run badly by others.”

Worth repeating:

“…the most important thing to remember is that the best time to go into a new business is when it’s being run badly by others.”

Do not worry about being first, worry about being the best, something that Sir Richard has shown. From his selling the Tubular Bells album by Mike Oldfield from the back of his car as young man to attack the comfy record companies and in doing do creating Virgin Records, to the wonderful story of how he started Virgin Atlantic:

His flight from Puerto Rico to the British Virgin Islands was grounded leaving him unable to join his girlfriend who he’d been away from for over three weeks. For mere mortals we would perhaps retire to the nearest hotel and dig into a decent meal with a glass of wine, he instead recognised that there might be a better way to do this and so (hoping his credit card would handle it!), he leased a plane, calculated his breakeven point, found a blackboard and chalk, wrote in capitals: ‘Virgin Airways’ and below that “$39 one way to BVI” and offered this to all his fellow stranded passengers…

That was the first ever Virgin Airways (soon called Virgin Atlantic) flight. He saw a comfy industry and although bad luck created that first flight, he was nimble, grabbed the opportunity and turned it into good luck. When the plane landed in the BVI one of the passengers told him “Sharpen up the service bit and you could be in the airline business”, and so the legend began… 

As far as service goes, many years later on a Virgin flight to Johannesburg, we actually got to chat to the great man himself as he took a tour of the plane in the middle of the night. Here was the legend taking a bit of time to just have a chat with his customers (those that were still awake). It’s the small things that make all the difference to customer loyalty and love of the Brand. As he says: “I’ve always said that if you don’t have time for the small things, you won’t have time for the big things.”

Here’s Sir Richard again:

“It’s also important to remember that good timing is less about speed, and more about being in sync…You don’t make your best decisions when you’re exhausted or overwhelmed, and you won’t have the capacity to spot new opportunities and think creatively…

All in all, timing is everything in business and in life. If you’re feeling close to burnout, it’s time to slow down. If you’re feeling inspired, don’t be afraid to pick up the pace. In all instances, try to be as observant, agile and open-minded as possible, you’ll be in a much better place to say yes when the right opportunity comes your way.”

Amen to that!

Stay safe.